I have been following the instrument, as you know, for months, and I noticed the price had broken the previous tramline low, and thus was certain to touch the next one, approximately 105p. I also took a calculated risk that the opening volatility, which always seems to happen with this share would pull it, like a magnet to the psychological £1 round point.
If it did go to £1 (I reasoned), it would go even lower by momentum, and this is what happened, falling as low as 88.75p at 08:25. I moved my short stop loss to 100p (which as I am writing this has just sold, so I booked 18.5p profit.
So what will happen now. With this drop, the share has once again entered oversold territory, and so a bounce is inevitable, and indeed it may re-enter the tramlines. (As I write, the price is back to 110p, so indeed it has). The price should then recover to the top tramline (between 140p and 150p) before heading down again.
Alternatively, the tramline support of 105p may now become resistance, in which case 88.75p could be revisited sooner rather than later.
In any event, the bigger picture is still a downward trend, and perma-bulls and other people emotional about this should note the smooth technical playbook being followed, on relatively even volume.
It now seems extremely likely that the price will move all the way back to the all-time low on May 9, 2013 of 80.65p (adjusted for splits). I will therefore continue to sell rallies.
All this assumes no material news, good or bad, about the company.